Women's Tournament Preview

Women's Tournament Preview

A sneak peak at the NCAA women's tourney scenario before the brackets come out on Monday.

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By WENDY PARKER

Basketball Times Online

If Pat Summitt is singing, it must be March. 

Specifically, this isn't March 2009, which was the culmination of an annus horribilis for a proud Tennessee program that fell in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to Ball State, an unprecedented loss that Summitt still maintains "haunts me daily."

A year later, the Lady Volunteers have made Summitt so happy that she took the microphone after winning her 14th SEC Tournament championship and belted out the first stanza of "Rocky Top." She claimed she did it for the 6,000 mostly orange-clad fans who followed the team to a suburban Atlanta arena but given the unusual tribulations of her program, it's more complicated than that. 

"I know I don't have a great voice," Summitt said later, her voice trailing off as she beamed as though this were a first-time experience. 

So she ain't no Minnie Pearl. But just as she serenaded UT men's coach Bruce Pearl and his team three years ago in her first a capella performance, she has other reasons for her uncharacteristic exuberance. 

She might have been singing in part because the same group of players she has hounded for most of the past year -- threw 'em out of their locker rooms, even claimed as late as early February they "disrespected the game of basketball" -- now seem to be on her wavelength. The same players whom she trotted out on to a practice floor two days after the Ball State debacle she commended for all the traits she demands her team to possess. 

"They rely on each other," Summitt said after Tennessee's 70-62 title game victory over Kentucky. "We don't have a Nikki Anosike or a Candace Parker [the linchpins of Tennessee's 2007 and 2008 NCAA title teams]. This group has a pretty good basketball IQ. They play well together and there's no dissension. They're coaching themselves."

The 30-2 Lady Vols appear certain of being one of the four No. 1 seeds filling out the NCAA women's tournament bracket that will be unveiled on Monday. Their road to the Final Four is also much more amenable, as they will play host to a subregional and probably be placed in the Memphis regional. 

The Big 12 and Pac 10 tournaments are still to be played out, but for the moment it looks to be Tennessee, UConn, Nebraska and Stanford as the No. 1 seeds. But Duke and Ohio State also pulled their league's regular season and tournament doubles. What if the Cornhuskers, who became the first Big 12 team to run the table in conference play, fall short? Stanford is unlikely to falter in a Pac 10 tourney it routinely dominates. 

But the NCAA women's basketball committee has far tougher tasks as it gathers in Indianapolis this weekend to fill out a bracket that could be riddled with teams than in better years wouldn't have the worksheets to get in. 

After attending the mock bracket exercise in March, I came away appreciative of how thankless this job is. As the regular season played out, my empathy for those 10 individuals has grown even more. (Then again, I remember that these folks wanted to serve.)

I'm firmly convinced that the more I understand the process, the less I know how this bracket is going to turn out. Fool that I am, I'll throw out a snapshot look at whom I believe are the Top 16 seeds, where they might go, and the conference breakdowns for NCAA bids:

Dayton Regional: UConn, Ohio State, Iowa State, Florida State. 

Memphis Regional: Tennessee, Xavier, Texas A & M, Notre Dame. 

Kansas City Regional: Nebraska, Duke, Texas, Georgetown. 

Sacramento Regional: Stanford, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky. 

Bah! I'm probably not even close, and I think the 2, 3 and 4 seed lines will change a lot in the committee war room. A lot is going to come down to what happens at the Big 12 tourney in Kansas City, where I'll be all weekend. 

I've got a better feel for the NCAA teams coming out of the conferences. I didn't include the smaller conferences that usually get just one team. So here goes with the multis: 

ACC (5): Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Virginia

America East (1-2): Think Hartford is in, but Vermont probably needs to win in finals.

Atlantic 10 (3): Dayton, Temple, Xavier.

Big East (7): Connecticut, DePaul, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Rutgers, St. John's, West Virginia.

Big Ten (4): Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin.

Big 12 (7): Baylor, Iowa State, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A & M. 

Colonial (1-2): Think James Madison is in, even as an at-large team. 

Mountain West (1-2): TCU for sure, and anybody else who might win the tourney if the Frogs don't.

Pac 10 (3): Stanford, UCLA, USC.

SEC (6): Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt. 

That still leaves a handful of at-large spots, and the remaining conference tournaments will be vital here. There could be some "wrong winners" along the way but that hasn't happened thus far. 

But I fully anticipate the committee drawing deep into the well of its nitty-gritty data, regional coaches rankings and having plenty of conversation and votes to get the 33 at-large teams.

And selection is just the first part. Seeding and bracketing will be even more difficult.