Preseason Primer: Prediction Time

Preseason Primer: Prediction Time

At long last, today is the day.  It's time for the return of college hoops and BTO is celebrating with a 1-on-1 game of prognosticating.  John Akers, editor of the print-version of Basketball Times, takes on Brendan F. Quinn, content manager for the BT Online, in a series of bold preseason predictions. By end of the season, don't be surprised if we each claim that our crystal balls were a tad cloudy.

THE AKERS PRIMER

Final Four - Kansas, Texas, Villanova, Purdue

Title - Kansas beats Texas in an all-Big 12 championship game.

Presason Top 10

1. Kansas

2. Texas

3. Villanova

4. Purdue

5. Kentucky

6. Michigan State

7. Duke

8. Butler

9. North Carolina

10. West Virginia

All-Americans

First Team

Cole Aldrich, Kansas

Luke Harangody, Notre Dame

Trevor Booker, Clemson

Evan Turner, Ohio State

Jerome Randle, California

Second Team

Patrick Patterson, Kentucky

Jarvis Varnado, Mississippi State

Damion James, Texas

Gordon Hayward, Butler

Jon Scheyer, Duke

Three Breakout Teams

1. Butler - The Bulldogs, a legitimate threat to reach the Final Four in hometown Indy, will carry the flag for mid-majors in a season where only the Pac-10 is expected to be down among the BCS conferences.

2. Siena - The Saints return the core of two teams that won back-to-back NCAA Tournament openers. Could there be any other reason to leave them out of AP's preseason Top 25 than that they simply play in the MAAC?

3. Vanderbilt - The Commodores, who return nearly everyone, could jump past Tennessee in the loaded SEC East.

Three Breakout Players

1. Dexter Pittman, Texas - Sexy Dexy, our walking Dexatrim commercial, picks up where he left off on his terrific performances last March.

2. Lazar Hayward, Marquette - The only 16-and-8 player left off the 50-deep Wooden Award watch list has a little something, something to prove.

3. Jimmer Fredette, BYU - No, we didn't include Fredette just because his name is Jimmer, though we think it's pretty cool. You'll learn more about him by next March.

Three Over-Rated Teams

1. Georgetown - Why is a Top 25 finish assumed as a birthright for a program that did little to upgrade from a 16-15 season?

2. Louisville - We keep reading that it would be dangerous to think the Cardinals will be done, but we read few reasons why we shouldn't.

3. Michigan State - A terrific team that will miss Goran Suton and Travis Walton too much to live up to its preseason No. 2 ranking by AP.

Three Over-Rated Players

1. Willie Warren, Oklahoma - A terrific player who'll need to become a far more consistent scorer/shooter to make one of Basketball Times' All-America teams.

2. Sherron Collins, Kansas - Another terrific player who'll need to start producing far more assists than turnover to make one of Basketball Times' All-America teams.

3. John Wall, Kentucky - Yet another terrific player who'll need to figure out John Calipari's dribble-drive offense more quickly than Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans did as freshmen to fulfill the ridiculous expectations of him.

THE QUINN PRIMER

Final Four - Kansas, Texas, West Virginia, Michigan State

Title - In a year where everyone is circling the other team in the Big 12, Rick Barnes and the 'Horns prevail over tough-luck Michigan State in Indy.

Preseason Top 10

1. Kansas

2. Texas

3. Michigan State

4. Kentucky

5. Villanova

6. West Virginia

7. Duke

8. Butler

9. Purdue
10. Washington

All-Americans
First Team
John Wall, Kentucky
Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
Cole Aldrich, Kansas
Kyle Singler, Duke
Sherron Collins, Kansas

Second Team
Patrick Patterson, Kentucky

Raymar Morgan, Michigan State
Trevor Booker, Clemson
Devin Ebanks, West Virginia
Evan Turner, Ohio State

Three Breakout Teams
1. Tulsa - After years of watching Memphis play the role of playground bully in Conference USA, Tulsa is about to rule the sandbox behind seniors Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh.
2. Portland - Like Tulsa looking up at Memphis, Portland and its WCC brethren have been dominated by Gonzaga for close to a decade.  Nik Raivio and the Pilots will look to fly past the Zags this season -- an unfathomable notion since the Clinton administration.
3. La Salle - The Explorers haven't dealt with anything resembling preseason expectations since Lionel Simmons was on campus.  Senior Rodney Green and freshman Aaric Murray could push La Salle into postseason play for the first time since 1989.

Three Breakout Players
1. Larry Sanders, VCU - Sitting next to an NBA scout at a VCU-Drexel game last season, I asked, "So you're keeping an eye on Eric Maynor?"  He responded, "Nope.  Larry Sanders.  And I'm not the only one."  The kid has limitless potential.
2. Damian Saunders, Duquesne - The Dukes are primed to take a major step this season in a relatively open Atlantic 10 and Saunders is the reason why.
3. Rotnei Clarke, Arkansas - Like long bombers?  Clarke makes 3-pointers look like layups and with a full season under his belt, he's ready to drop daggers all over the SEC.

Three Over-Rated Teams
1. Siena - This isn't as much a slight to the Saints, as it is a wakeup call to those who are handing the MAAC title to Fran McCafferty's team.  Look for Niagra, led by senior Tyrone Lewis, to finally overcome Siena this season.
2. Seton Hall - A trendy pick throughout the preseason as America's breakout team, Seton Hall has burst back to prominence with the impending debut of transfers Herb Pope and Keon Lawrence.  Not so fast, folks.  The Pirates haven't finished higher than 11th in the Big East under coach Bobby Gonzalez and a non-conference schedule consisting of St. Peter's, Monmouth, Cornell, Long Island, N.J.I.T., Hartford, UMass, VMI, Temple and Navy won't prepare this young team for league play.
3. North Carolina - With all do respect to Roy Williams, even he must admit that a preseason ranking of No. 4 in the coaches' poll is pretty lofty for a team that has to replace Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green (a combined 66.2 ppg).  The defending champs will rely heavily on freshmen and sophomores in 2009-10.  A top-five finish is asking a lot.

Three Over-Rated Players
1. Renardo Sidney, Mississippi State - The talent is unquestionable, but so is the abundance of question marks.  Work ethic?  Attitude?  Weight?  Shot selection?  It's a list that needs to be answered before Sidney can be considered as great as some people make him out to be.
2. Samardo Samuels, Louisville - Similarly to Georgetown's Greg Monroe, Samuels is a great big man that must improve his rebounding.  The 6-8 sophomore pulled down just 4.9 rpg in 25.1 mpg last season.
3. Greivis Vasquez, Maryland - Yes, he dropped his turnovers from 4.4 per game to 2.8 last year, but Vasquez is still good for a handful of mind-numbing, head-scratching plays every game.  Often times, they directly affect the game's outcome.  He has all the talent in the world, but needs to clean things up.